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Robert Peck – Bear Stearns: Mobile Spectrum Auction C Block Results Likely To Be Delayed

Robert Peck and his research team at Bear Stearns has been doing an amazing job of explaining, tracking arcane information and sending out brief snippets regarding the ongoing FCC mobile spectrum auction process. The volume of information they are tracking is both significant and lacks immediate transparency as the bidders are not immediately named.

This morning he pointed out that the D auction block is well it’s minimum and will likely be re-auctioned. What is significant about this is that the results of auction 73 can not be shared until all of the blocks are completed. Here is the exact text of what Robert Peck sent out this morning (emphasis added):

GOOG – 700MHz – How D Block Impacts Google…. Auction 73 completed its Round 35 bidding yesterday – results are posted on FCC website. We have previously alerted you to the fact that the PWB regional bids on all 12 regional licenses add up to $4.75B, higher than the $4.71B on the nationwide package which was entered in Round 17. Hence, the original bidder on the nationwide package is Google or another carrier, that bidder no longer has the obligation to purchase the spectrum. Industry advisers think Auction 73 could rap up as soon as the next two weeks.
However, we also want to point out that there are 5 blocks of spectrum in this auction and the 4th one (the D block) is currently set at $472M, below its $1.3B reserve. Many assume that this block will NOT meet the minimum reserve and will need to be put into Auction 76 to be re-auctioned. While this does not DIRECTLY impact Google or other block bidders (those blocks will be locked in at the end of the auction 73), it does INDIRECTLY impact Google in that no Auction 73 results can be disclosed until all 5 block are complete. This means that investors may be significantly delayed in learning who won the C block, as the only timeline deadline statute for the FCC statute in this auction is for all of the spectrum must be over and the money collected by June 30, 2008

Knowing Robert as I do, he probably wishes that they would have put this whole thing on Ebay. 🙂

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Have We Entered The Era of The Functional Web?

The New York Times has an article on how the potential sale of Yahoo! to Microsoft could be bad for minnows, i.e. small Silicon Valley companies looking to be acquired. I think this is a short sighted viewpoint.

In the late 1990’s dot.com era, the web was slanted too much towards wall street involvement that led IPO’s that were questionable and in retrospect not advisable.

A force outside the web, namely Sarbanes-Oxley in the Enron aftermath, has made the IPO considerably more challenging to achieve and costly to navigate – even for highly legitimate ideas.

In the web 2.0 era, the slant often went way too far to the left in terms of engineering. Some ideas with little actual business purpose have received unwarranted acclaim and without artificial sources of acquisition, some might not even exist.

Before I go onto explain why that development might create an alignment that I’ll tentatively call the functional web, let me state that I think there are plenty of other companies out there that could emerge to pick up the slack such as Fox, Intuit, Apple or any of a number of traditional media companies who “get it”.

This web might emerge even if the Yahoo! acquisition does not take place. If the functional web emerges a place where engineering and business purpose mix in equally important parts instead of the excesses in one direction or another, who potentially gains and who potentially has something to lose?

Potential Gainers:

– Strong Internet business skill generalists with strong system architecture, product management and the ability to network with geeks and non-geeks alike and iterate from feedback will be in higher demand.

– Companies who would like to challenge the big three who would get an opening.

– People who understand how to create revenue models that could provide for great stand alone businesses.

– People pushing for Sarbanes-Oxley reform to reopen the IPO spiggot a tad. They will push even harder.

Potential Losers:

– Funding sources who either fund ideas in a me-too fashion or just because they’ve known the people since the dot.com era and/or those who can’t define and lead a path to monetization or bring strong execution partners to the table.

– Domain name squatters and sellers.

– Passive executive recruiters who will have to actually analyze comprehensive skill sets instead of simply poaching from a direct competitor.

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Blake Jorgensen, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Tim Cadogan of Yahoo! to Present at Thomas Weisel Partners Conference

Yahoo! to present at the Thomas Weisel Partners Technology, Telecom, and Internet Conference

Blake Jorgensen, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Tim Cadogan, SVP, Search, Listings, and Display Marketplaces will present at the Thomas Weisel Partners Technology, Telecom, and Internet Conference. The presentation will take place on Wednesday, February 6, 2008 at 3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT

A live webcast of the presentations will be available on the Investor Relations website at:
http://yhoo.client.shareholder.com/events.cfm?CalendarID=5

Welcome back Blake!

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The Yahoo! Rumor That Just Won’t Go Away…

So Michael Arrington got put on the spot on Fox Business News and the age old Microsoft/Yahoo! merger rumor resurfaced. It’s almost as frequent as a Rick Roll YouTube video link.

I’ve written before about how this Microsoft rumor, which dates back to the days of Terry Semel, seems less likely to me than other alternatives such as ATT. Not that it’s even a likely event with the right management moves.

So Dave, why do you think this? Well, it’s commonplace for companies to have long standing alliances before merging. Yesterday, Yahoo! sent out this little noticed press release which stated the following.

AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), the nation’s No. 1 wireless and broadband provider, and Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO), a leading global Internet company, today announced a new multi-year strategic alliance that paves the way for an even richer and more innovative online experience for consumers – whether at home or on the go.

This doesn’t mean a Microsoft merger is impossible, I just can’t see a scenario where AT&T isn’t given a chance to match it or initiate it based on 7 years of partnership history.

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Plaxo 3.0 Problems

I was prompted to install this during my last use of Outlook. I’m extremely sorry that I did. Without my authorization, it downloaded my Linkedin profiles apparently through it’s new integration and created hundreds of duplicate entries with different email addresses. (Most people don’t have the same email address in Linkedin as they do at their business for a variety of reasons.) Anyone with a clue knows this, how did this get programmed this way?

Unfortunately, the one contact I had at Plaxo, Mark Jen, has left to join Tagged.

Someone from Plaxo needs to get in touch with me and rectify this problem and/or revert me to a previous version that I trust. I’m not very happy with you right now at all Plaxo, but I had previously found it’s service useful. The changing of the logo along with this is really destructive to their brand. I hope they do the right thing and fix this and give me a free dedupe for this incredibly foolish action on their part.